NORTH AMERICA CONFERENCE: MAKHIR COMMUNITY

 

The formation of Maakhir - The Economist

 

Breaking into even smaller bits?

Even the parts of Somalia that were steady are looking shaky again

04 Oct, 2007

A PECULIARITY of Somalia is that while the south of the country, including its broken capital, Mogadishu, has burned, the north has been stable. Now, to the horror of those trying to put Mogadishu back together again, the north is beginning to crack too. Fighting broke out this week between Somaliland, the northern strip that has been virtually independent of the rest of the country for some 16 years, and Puntland, a semi-autonomous territory in the north-east (see map). Somaliland says it has driven Puntland forces out of Los Anod, a town in the disputed Sool region, killing six Puntlanders and injuring or capturing another 40-plus. Puntland says its soldiers have retaken the town. Yet another war seems to be breaking out.

Sool is split between sub-clans backing either Somaliland or Puntland, while some of them want autonomy for Sool itself. Somaliland, a former British colony that was separate from the larger parts that were run by Italy, declared independence in 1991 and has since sought international recognition. Puntland's sense of identity is less strong; it has seen itself as a building block for a future federal Somalia.

But Puntland is losing its grip. The Sool dispute has been compounded by the secession of much of the Sanaag region from Puntland, to form yet another self-governing entity in the north. Drawing on its history as a sultanate, Sanaag declared independence in July, renamed itself Makhir, and chose Badhan as its capital. Tension between Makhir and Puntland is high.

A still worse headache for Puntland is the departure of its strongman, Abdullahi Yusuf, to become president of Somalia. He ran Puntland with authority and ambition, grandiosely hoping to turn it into the Horn of Africa's Dubai. When he went south, he took with him a lot of Puntland troops, vehicles, weapons and ammunition. Their departure emboldened other northerners with dreams of secession or autonomy, and may give Somaliland the edge if the dispute over Sool leads to war.

Oil and gas add fuel to the ferment. Exploration rights in Puntland have been sold several times over. Somalia's prickly prime minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi, was furious when Mr Yusuf signed oil agreements without telling him, including one with a Chinese company. Mr Gedi has also refused to endorse exploration deals signed by Puntland's government.

Meanwhile, Mogadishu is getting worse again. Fewer children are going to school. The city's markets are stagnant—quite the opposite of the government's assertions that things are back to normal. Government troops and the Ethiopian forces propping up Somalia's government are still being attacked by bombs, grenades and snipers of the Islamist militias ousted by Ethiopians early this year.

The African Union promised to send 8,000 peacekeepers and then hand authority to a UN mission later this year. But several AU countries failed to honour their pledges. Uganda is still the only African one to have sent troops; with just 1,600 of them there, the UN is unlikely to come in and take over.

The American administration and other Western governments still want to back Somalia's transitional government until elections due in 2009. A recent reconciliation conference in Mogadishu passed off without rancour, itself something of a success, and was bolstered by the apparent failure of a rival meeting, mainly of Somali Islamists, in the Eritrean capital, Asmara.

Source: Economist.com

Somalia: An Open Letter to Coastline Exploration

Coastline Exploration 

Houston, Texas

United States

January 9, 2023

Dear William and Jacob: 

I've read and followed with interest Coastline Exploration's Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) with the Federal  Government of Somalia (SFG) on October 21, 2022. The agreement grants your company an exclusive contract to explore seven (7) offshore blocks that are within the areas under the direct control of SFG. Information about the PSA, the company’s current market valuation (if any), its physical assets (i.e., mobile or fixed platforms or rigs) and details about the designated offshore fields within Somalia’s territorial sea and Exclusive Economic Zone is scarce. 

Several hydrocarbon study projects show that Somalia is one of the last unexplored oil and gas frontiers (see Mapping Oil Exploration in Somalia and Ethiopia, 2016). While oil exploration and development play a vital role in the global economy, ideological and clan-based conflicts in Somalia have hampered oil discovery. President Hassan believes the signing of the PSA should deliver "material benefits for all Somalis".  

However, the president ignores the real cost of his good intentions that would probably improve the living standards and wellbeing of Somalis if and when oil is discovered and developed. The processes, systems, and infrastructure needed to undertake these types of projects are extremely complex and capital-intensive, meaning production and refining of oil products barely create jobs for the local economy. For countries that lack checks and balances or strong institutions, the small share of profits generated is prone to misappropriation and embezzlement. The process is even more volatile in an unstable political environment and can trigger armed struggle over territoriality and the ownership of the resources. Africa Oil and Ranger Resources are some of the small companies that had previously failed in these endeavors. See the Warsangeli-Puntland conflict (2006 - 2013), by Markus Virgil Hoehne published at JSTOR. 

Per the company's website, Coastline Exploration was founded in 2018 in Houston, Texas with a particular interest in exploring Somalia’s untapped offshore oil and gas potential. The company's founders drew their inspiration from the recent discovery of oil and gas in East Africa and the confirmed working petroleum system that North Somalia shares with Yemen (see the map). The founders are overall sanguine about the oil-sourcing potential in Somalia. However, Somalia still lacks a unified national government; the rule of law in the areas under the control of the SFG, which the company intends to explore, is to a large extent nonexistent since the SFG declared war on the insurgent group, al-Shabab. After decades of international backing and support, The SFG is still struggling to build consensus that should lay down a working system of governance and of justice. The country as a whole is fragmented along clan lines in the form of semi-autonomous regions that often defy or question the legitimacy of the SFG.  

My concern was elevated when I read an article by Reuters, which reported that no government officials were reachable for comment after your company  paid a $7million signature bonus to the Somali authorities for signing the PSA. 

Granted the company is obliged to comply with the PSA it has signed and the laws under which it is incorporated (including environmental standards), I hope you will consider the issues highlighted in this letter and share any information or insight that  might keep the process of exploration transparent and equitable for the hapless Somali people. 

Thank you! 

Mohamed Elmi